Supply chain contagion waves: Thinking ahead on manufacturing ‘contagion and reinfection’ from the COVID concussion
COVID-19 containment policies first shuttered factories in China. Since manufacturers around the world rely on Chinese inputs, Chinese industrial disruption hit other nations via ‘supply-chain contagion’. As China gears back up having mastered the first epidemic wave, the explosions of cases in the two other manufacturing giants, Germany and America, are likely to create reverse supply-chain contagion – the industrial equivalent of reinfection. International coordination may reduce the chances that multiple waves of supply-chain contagion hobble global manufacturing until a vaccine is developed.
By Richard Baldwin (Graduate Institute Geneva)